Israel Harel has an excellent editorial in today's Haaretz, analyzing the situation in the Likud now. Sharon's leaving has hurt the overall electoral power of the party, and this will take time to recover. The ideology of the party, however will be strengthened in the long run.
He has some advice for us (those of us living in settlements in Judea and Samaria) also. Patience. We are in for a very rough period of time, but we will prevail in the end.
I agree with his analysis. I take it one step further, and think that the national religious camp has to do what Moshe Feiglin and others of Manhigut Yehudit have been saying for years - join the Likud. Depending on and voting for the small parties was fine when the Likud embodied the traditional Jewish values - we had the luxury of emphasizing a stronger stance based on our religious viewpoint. In today's climate, when even traditional values are fading from a significant portion of the population in Israel, we have no choice but to focus our energies on educating those who want something Jewish for their children, but don't know how to do this.