Thursday, February 09, 2006

Hit Him Where it Hurts - In the Voting Booth

Last weeks Makor Rishon had a small article describing how many of the so called "orange youth" are about to take to the streets again - this time going house to house campaigning. Remembering their success in changing minds before the Likud referendum on the disengagement plan, they plan to focus on those traditional Likud voters who may have decided to vote for Kadima. (For those of you who don't know, before the Likud referendum on the disengagement plan from Gush Katif, polls showed a majority were for the plan. After three weeks of intensive, one-on-one campaigning, the end result was that the disengagement plan was rejected by an unprecedented landslide of 60 percent against, 40 percent for, which Arik Sharon chose to ignore). The teens, and adults who will join them, are hoping to get these voters to change their minds and go back to the Likud.

I was very happy to see this article, and today's article in Haaretz makes me even more hopeful. They did a survey which shows a drop in Kadima's support, from 43 seats to 40. This specific drop may not be so important, but other, more detailed information in the article seems to be significant.

One, while the transfer of funds to the PA was cited as a reason for the drop in Kadima support, they also found that the evacuation of Amona led 9 percent to change their vote from Kadima to the Likud.

Two, they found that in addition to 6 percent of voters who do not plan to vote at all, 13 percent are undecided. (A Maagar Mochot poll shows an even greater number of undecided.) This translate into 20 floating seats.

Three, the survey shows significant public support for the establishment of an inquiry committee to investigate the Amona evacuation, which the Knesset approved in its first reading yesterday, despite Labor's backpedaling.

Four, they found that Olmert's personal approval rating has dropped.

Knock on those doors, guys. It certainly beats getting hit over the head by a baton!

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Blogger Soccer Dad said...

I don't think you should pay so much attention to seats for Kadima. The poll figures are almost certainly inflated. Israel Matzav, I think, had the best take on the election.

10:12 PM, February 09, 2006  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hopefully the investigation will thorough, and then we can watch them lose 20 more seats. Wouldn't that be something? He wanted to crack some frum heads to get elected only to watch it blow up in his face... imagine the possibilities.

1:42 AM, February 10, 2006  
Blogger westbankmama said...

David - I agree with you about the polls not being accurate, but when we discuss the elections with others they do give credence to them.

tovya - I am very cynical about the investigation, to be honest. One, it needs to go through another vote in the Knesset before being approved finally. Two, if it does convene, its results will reflect the make-up of the investigative committee itself. Who in this country is completely objective? Not very many people (and I'm including those of us on the right as well as those on the left).

On the other hand, I think it is necessary to have it, to at least prove that there still is some sort of system.

11:01 AM, February 10, 2006  
Blogger Don Radlauer said...

I wouldn't recommend getting too gloaty about the investigation until more evidence comes out. I spent some time last Thursday with some high-ranking police officers (at the official inauguration of Alfei Menashe's Civil Guard Mounted Unit, of which Vaguely Sinister Wife and I, along with Kahlua the Wonder Horse, are members), and they seemed to feel that the police videos of the Amona incident (which, stupidly, the police have been very slow to publish) will show a very different picture of what happened than that shown in the pro-settler videos that have been released.

Of course, the police videos, no matter what they show protestors at Amona doing, won't exonerate those police who committed acts of unnecessary violence - and I do believe that such acts were probably committed. But I strongly suspect that police videos will show the protestors as much less angelic than we've been led to believe.

Of course, all this is speculation until the videos actually are made public. I'm merely cautioning against assuming that we know the whole truth when one side has yet to make its case.

11:28 AM, February 13, 2006  
Blogger Avi Green said...

You're certainly right that the polls are exaggerated, and Daniel Pipes wrote one of the best articles on the subject some time ago. At the same time, the "orange" youth do have a good idea to work on a door-to-door campaign concept, sort of like the US Boy Scouts (which my dad once was a member of in his youth).

I do find it odd why some people in the US, if that's whom you're referring to, don't seem to realize that, just like the US and Europe, even Israel's got its own MSM to contend with. I do know that The New Republic's EIC and chairman, Martin Peretz, sincere though he may be, is sadly one of those who doesn't seem to realize it.

7:35 PM, February 13, 2006  
Blogger westbankmama said...

Don - I am very skeptical that the police have any videos of teens being excessively violent. If they had, they would have shown them already. The only thing they showed was that spliced tape on the Friday night tv program.

Avi - I find that Americans believe everything they read in Ynet and JPost as if it is the objective truth, even though they may be skeptical of what is written in the American press.

4:25 PM, February 14, 2006  
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