Sunday, March 26, 2006

Mama Predicts the Election Results

I'm going to put down my predictions for the election results here, two days before the polls open. I obviously don't have any "insider information", but I read widely and I take the polls published in the papers with a grain of salt. The polls almost always lean left, because people with right wing views are less likely to answer questions over the telephone about their voting preferences, so that the samples are skewed from the beginning. This year it is even more difficult to predict results because of the large number of undecided voters, and those who don't plan to vote at all. Those who do decide at the last minute will, in my opinion, vote for either Likud or Yisrael Beitenu (Lieberman). There is also a big difference between answering a question on the telephone, and getting yourself out to vote. They are predicting rain for the entire country on Tuesday, so Kadima is getting nervous.

So here goes: Kadima 31, Likud 19, Labor 18, Yisrael Beitenu 14, Shas 11, Ichud HaLeumi 9, Arab parties 8, UTJ 6, Meretz 4.

Anyone else care to put down their bets?

14 Comments:

Blogger Elliott Cahan said...

Nice try Mama. I'll go out on a limb, and say Kadima 30, Labor 18, Meretz 5, Likud 19, Shas, 12, Israel Beitenu 13, NRP/Eichud Haleumi 15, UTJ 6, Arabs 9

10:41 AM, March 26, 2006  
Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

WBM: Interesting breakdown.

You realize that the difference of a right wing coalition or a left wing one will be decided by the 40,000 people voting for Marzel.

11:14 AM, March 26, 2006  
Blogger Emanuel Ben-Zion said...

Kadima 33, Labor 19, Likud 16, Israel Beitenu 13, Shas 12, Meretz 8, Arab parties 8, others 11.

12:45 PM, March 26, 2006  
Blogger Rafi G said...

I am posting my prediction on my blog..
does closest guess to actual results win anything?

1:23 PM, March 26, 2006  
Blogger Scottage said...

Here's Mine. We should be having some sort of pool. Sick, I know, but tempting nonetheless.

Kadima 28, Likud 22, Labor 14, Shas 14, NRP 12 Israel Beitenu 10, Arab 7, Meretz 7, Other 6

11:25 PM, March 26, 2006  
Blogger Jameel @ The Muqata said...

Rafi G: Closest to actual vote results wins an unphotoshopped picture of Jameel this past Purim.

12:19 PM, March 27, 2006  
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